In tribute to my long time hero, Steve Jobs, I would like to dedicate this blog post to him.

One of the greatest feat that Steve Jobs had achieved was how he recreated the entire ecosystem for the music industry.  While there are some striking similarity between the Music industry with the Travel industry (that they are both old, distribution channel controls most power), there are of course many differences to keep in mind.  So, what would Steve Jobs do, if he was to put his mind into reinventing the travel industry?

What would Steve Jobs have done if he were to recreate the travel industry?

iPod – the End User Device

The music industry change began with the Apple iPod, the first hard-drive based mp3 player that had people asking, “Why do I need to have 6 GB, when 512 MB is enough?”  At that time, the iPod was certainly NOT the first mp3 player – in fact, Apple was quite a late player into the MP3 device manufacturer.  However, their biggest selling point, 6 GB of space, won out many of the hard core music fans who at that time would at most half filled their iPod.

This provided room to grow.

The Travel Industry:

For the travel industry, the current iOS platform (iPhone, iPod Touch, iPad) provides a hand held device that is very capable of performing any travel-related activities.  From travel booking, researching, to taking photos, to sharing the travel memories, these devices are used.

iTunes - the End User Experience

Along with iPod came iTunes.  It started off as a program that transfers songs from ones’ computer to the iPod.  While it was a buggy program (it still is), it does allow easy synchronization and a way to reliably transfer the contents.  With this device distribution methods ready, people are free to rip out their own CD, as well as download (em hem, Napster) music and put them onto the iPod.

The Travel Industry:

This may be the most crucial piece that is currently missing from Apple’s pipeline, if they do intend to go into travel.  In fact, back in 2010, there was a news story broke out about the iTravel patent.  While it never really made into public eyes, it was nonetheless a very interesting report.

As the app is completely designed in Apple’s hands, designers can make it very user friendly, with performance and data efficiency, as well as practicality in mind.

iTunes Store – The Distribution Channel

The biggest game changer, however, is when Steve Jobs went to each major record label, and ask them to sell their musics PER TRACK and FOR 99 cents.  Both are radical concepts.  A CD typically has 12-18 tracks of songs, and costs around $20.  On a per track cost, it does work out to be about the same price.  The music industry, used to “bundle” a bunch of songs, hit titles, non-hit songs into ONE CD.  Regardless of whether the consumer likes the song or not, he or she will have to buy the entire CD for $20.

The $.99 per track model turned this paradigm upside down.  The hit songs are sold very well, and they are typically charged $0.99.  The not-so-hit songs, however, can even charge higher, some go as high as $1.29.  This caters to “the long tail” and hard core fans of the artists, who would collect every music that has been created by the artist.  By 2010, there were more than 10 Billion tracks available on iTunes, making it the largest single music source, and forever changing not just the music industry, but also media distribution industry such as books, and video shows.

The Travel Industry:

Much like the music industry, the biggest obstacle to recreate the travel industry is to change the mindsets of the distribution channels.  While music industry was entirely consumer focused and hence the mental shift can be purely made from consumer electronics, the travel industry involved a lot more hard cost.

For example, the cost involved to create a music track can range from very little (using a laptop, microphone) to very much (state-of-the-art studio, famous artists, etc) while most of the costs are soft costs.  By contrast, the cost to provide a plane ride is at least the maintenance for the plane, the flight crew, and the fuel.  That’s why for air travel, it is difficult to control.

The opportunity for cheap deals is when the flight / hotel room is almost full, and that the few remaining seats can generate many buzz or to help extract more revenue.

While booking is still mostly done with intermediary (GDS, wholesalers, travel agents, OTAs), or referral sites (Kayak, Google Flights), suppliers are now marketing aggressively to the direct consumers.

The intermediary, at this point, can offer consumers something that direct suppliers can not – the ability to change and modify their itineraries.

Genius – The advisor

Perhaps not many people are familiar with the Genius playlist.  But it really is what a Travel Agent/Advisor do for travel planning.  Genius starts with, “what do you have on your playlist”?  and then go on to suggest songs that are similar in taste.

An experience travel agent/advisor should do just that.

I must also note, that this “advisor” role maybe the weakest of Apple’s offerings in music.  Guessing what people want is never easy, and hence companies like Google build their entire business out of this.  With the reach of reading your email (gmail offering ads), browsing behaviours (google search record will be kept if you are logged in), social interactions (google +), Google has a very good idea of what YOU WANT.

And that’s why Google Flights/Hotel, and the concept of Google Travel is a very scary but potentially lucrative piece of the puzzle.

Related posts:

1. The State of Online Travel Industry (Part 1 of 3): The Typical Booking Experience
2. How the emergence of mobile had changed my travel

The original article came from

http://insidetech.monster.com/careers/articles/7991-10-hardware-products-google-should-develop

Where it showcased 10 hardware products:

1.  Smartphones;  2. Netbooks;  3. Tablets; 4. Desktop; 5. Game Console

6. Set-top Box; 7. Laptop; 8. Basic Mobile Phone; 9. Router; 10. Ipod

Here is what I would add my own take:

11. VOIP Router/Rocket Stick – for its Google Voice Service

12. VPN USB Key  - that allows netizens from China to scale the great wall

13. Cars – that can automate and drive itself based on the input entered on Google map. It can also avoid people you don’t want to see on Latitude.

14. Cameras – that uploads directly to Picasa or Blogger, also tags directly to Google Maps

15. Home heaters – that hooks up with the Google Smart Meter project,  to real time monitor electricity usage

16. Wearable computers –  with a sensor that can detect your brainwave, and hence detect what you are thinking. Directly goes into Google Search and result will display on a pair of glasses.

17 …. Actually, I think that’s all I can think of for now. Will add some more in the comments section.

I had lots of fun making up this list though…

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There has been numerous comparisons between different phones and features, is the Nexus One better than the Droid, or is it better than the iPhone.  Not many comparisons are on the web regarding  the platforms, and the platforms only.  The platforms that I’m considering here are:

• iPhone OS
• Android
• Windows Mobile
• Blackberry
• Symbian OS
• Taiwan-made MTK
• PalmOS

Of course, each of these operating systems has each of its advantages and disadvantages, and we cannot simply look at the platform without considering the devices around them.

However, with the convergence of phone manufacturers jumping  on to different platforms (HTC has WinMo and Android, Ericsson has WinMo, Symbian, and Android), the mobile devices is more and more uniform. Hence we really should be looking at how the different operating systems are like.

First, the low down:

Market Shares of mobile platforms

Second, the breakdown of each of the platforms:

iPhone OS

iPhone has been around since 2007.   Since then, it has been called the “God” phone.  Currently it has sold over 42 Million units all over the world, with the majority in the United States.  I was mesmerized by the sleekness, speed, and the ability to multi-touch when I first saw the phone.  The form factor, user experience has been imitated from then on.  The strongest point of the iPhone has been its applications, with over 150,000 applications in the store.  Of those, all the coolest applications are on it and some businesses would develop in this only.  However, because the App Store  is a closed system, there had been complaints from developers saying their apps cannot pass through due to conflict of interest with Apple and its partners.

Google vs Apple (taken from New York Times)

Android

Android began its life as an open-source project and the operating system of the Open Handset Alliance.  In 2005 they were acquired by Google and the popularity just soared.  The project was a branch off the Linux kernel, but since Google acquired them, Google has made many changes to the project without contributing back, hence getting kicked out of the Linux Kernel.  To date, it has over 30,000 applications and equally gathering lots of attention of developers and businesses.  China, who manufactures low cost handsets, is a huge proponent to the Android OS, because it can further reduce the price of the offering to its rural area and for exports.  However, the recent incident between Chinese government and Google may create some road block of the growth for Android.

Windows Mobile

Microsoft has certain been one of the earlier adopters to mobile computing with the WinCE system on PDAs (Also the Apple Newton and Palm Pilots).  However, all through these years, Windows Mobiles had similar looks, and required the use of a stylus.  With phone manufacturers such as HTC, Samsung putting up their own efforts to make the skin more user friendly, there is still no hiding that the operating system is out-dated. In 2010, Microsoft announced that they are releasing Windows Phone 7 Series, with one HUGE problem – none of the previous applications are compatible with this new release.

I can already see how Microsoft will be losing this race, despite having a brand new offering, it  may have already turned their most loyal users away.  To date, there are around 700 applications and they need to figure out a new strategy in order to stay competitive in the smartphone market.

Blackberry

I like RIM –  I used to work in Motorola Canada where I was making software for two-way pagers, and I know the RIM originates from this technology.  Having witnessed how a small company from Waterloo, Ontario grew internationally, I think the “tipping point” moment of its history must have been the United States President Obama being dubbed the “Blackberry President“.  (I swear he was not the first one that used it,  it must have been much much earlier, maybe during Bill Clinton times) Since then, the brand has been associated with power, business and more power.

I truly believe this is the brand image that RIM needs to keep – no more touch screen phones, stop focusing on the consumer.  Just simply do the email and data well. Pay money to developers to create business applications.   If they branch off too much into consumerism and attempt to compete with Apple or Android,  then it may drain away too much of their resources.

Symbian OS

I must admit, I love Nokia phones.  I had a 6230i which lasted me 6 years, and I am currently using a E71. They are great phones, with awesome features and long lasting battery life, unlike the iPhone and other Android phones.  However, Symbian is having image problems.  Being the dominated mobile manufacturer and operating system, Symbian had been around for… TOO LONG. It’s similar to how Hotmail came about and everyone had hotmail at one point, and then, all of a sudden, they were taken over by the sexier, sleeker gmail.   I think  Symbian actually has more applications than the iPhone.  Of how many of them are current and usable, I can’t say.

One of the problems I have heard from an industry leader about Symbian, is that they are very reliable, low cost, and people perceived that it should stay that way.  Nokia would have no problem supplying the new, low cost markets with its low end phones, however, to a Geek or a developer, these markets are not  interesting enough.  So, when someone new looking at the available applications to the platform, there is NO GOOD APPS.  The Ovi Store simply cannot attract new developers as they cannot expect the low cost markets to pay for an app, even if it is being charged $1US.

Taiwan-made MTK

MTK is actually a  chip manufacturer in Taiwan, which supply 99% of all the “Shanzhai” (fake) phones in China. Despite the looks of a fake iPhone that you may have seen on news articles, underneath, they all have the same operating system – the MTK system.  The general specification of the system: Dual SIM, Bluetooth, Calendar, MP3, books, multi-lingual input, microSD input, support QQ  (a very popular IM), WAP/EDGE, touch screen capable, Java capable (sometimes).  The typical cost of a MTK powered phone: less than $100USD – it certainly can be a power to be if it has a proper application platform and better P.R. (no pun intended, means Public Relations here…)

The latest news I heard, is that MTK is intending to use Android as its de-facto operating system.

PalmOS

See Microsoft’s Windows Mobile, except imagine a company running out of cash.  Good luck, Palm.

So, how will the mobile future looks like?

My Bet:

If I have to put in a bet to see where the future in Mobile Smartphone Platforms, I will certainly place it in Android.  iPhone will be always cool, but a  closed system (hardware and software) will once again create an ecosystem of what happened 20 years ago with the MacIntosh vs the PC argument.  Windows Mobile will be interesting as things are too early at this point to judge.  I personally would like Nokia/Symbian to have a better prospect, although turning a large ship, like Symbian, around takes time and money – both of which Nokia can provide given its large lead and its penetration in the low-end market.

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So, we’ve all heard about the official blog that Google is threatening to move out of China.  Being raised in Canada, and been living in China the past 2 years learning to understand the rule to play in China, this news really shocked me.

Initial Reactions:

So far, I have heard of two major schools of thoughts. One thought originates from China, and the other originates from the rest of the world.

1. China thoughts: Yes, we have Baidu. We don’t really need Google’s search.  Gmail has the equivalent 163.com, GTalk has the equivalent MSN messenger/QQ,  GoogleDoc has the equivalent OpenOffice/pirated MS Office.  In fact even if the Chinese blocked off 7 out of Alexa’s top 15 websites, life will be the same in China because most of the services has the equivalent service in China.

2. TROTW thoughts: Great play, Google. Live up to the “Do no Evil”  motto. Don’t give in because Google thinks that some Chinese-government sponsored hackers hacked into their infrastructure and got access to their intellectual property.  Fight the communist government like the cold war.  China market was only 200M 600M last year and that is peanuts. Google can let go of this market since it’s not the leader anyways.

3. My reactions: Living in Beijing the past 2 years, I have access to many different news in HK – particularly the ones that got blocked.  Witnessing the H1N1 outbreak,Sichuan earthquake, 6-4 20 year anniversary, I can objectively compare between news coverage in the mainland vs outside world.  I must say,  that I was happy to see great improvement the past few years in how the media is beginning to open up, particularly in the run-up of 2008 Beijing Olympics.  I was happy to be in Beijing because I could see the direction of media, or even government is willing to open up.

Responding to the Chinese school of thoughts – yes I don’t think the withdrawal of Google will affect daily life in China.  But think about it, only recently (last 6 months) that we FINALLY saw Baidu moved away from the price-bidding keyword on the first 10 pages of its search result, and added more organically generated results.  If it wasn’t for Google’s “small influence” of 35% 20%, according to FT.com (I read conflicting reports- are they trying to downplay the political reasoning and stressing that it’s mostly financial reasons?) usage rate in China, I can assure you that Baidu’s first 50 pages of results will be all purchased sponsors.

Responding to the rest of the world’s thoughts – if most people think that it was because of financial reasons prompting Google to leave – that’s the most outrageous thoughts I have heard so far – especially that it was the view that Financial Times seems to be taking.  Yes, currently China market provides very little for Google’s revenue – but WHAT FOREIGN COMPANY IS MAKING MONEY IN THE FIRST 10 YEARS IN CHINA? No matter what company it is, what country it is in – when it comes to operating in a new market it takes time, money, and patience.  I think given Google’s office of 800 people,  getting 600M revenue and 35% of search, along with lots of Chinese-tailored innovations  (maps, voice search, music) itself is quite a feat. Good work, Lee Kai Fu!

What it means in the near and long term

I’m worried. As search results in China becomes uncensored, Chinese government can only do one thing: block Google and anything Google-related.

1. Gmail outage – mail.google.com will be the most impacting service.  Many people in China uses gmail. I’m  pondering how I move all my mail off the server now.

2. Google Maps – I don’t have an official statistic of how many web services uses Google Maps as its base, but there are quite a  few.  There are alternatives in China (MapABC, Microsoft, etc) but it still takes some time for companies to switch over.

3. Search – yes, eventhough there are only 35% of Chinese internet users using Google, these 35% are really the people  who are more educated, higher income – urban, young people, professionals. (Sorry I can’t find any studies regarding this,  I wonder if I can find something  like this once I do a google search with a VPN on, or heck, when I google now).

4. Music – no, Google is not a big player in music in China and there are MANY other alternatives.  However, with Google shutting down the music service, it may terminate a testing ground for other companies to step in, and offer the free-music model to the rest of the world.

5. Android – yes, Android. With Google’s plan to release more phones and better software, and China’s strategy to provide cheap, unbranded phones running the Android service, the open-source software was set  to explode in the next few years.  Now, if Google pulls out – does it even allow the phone to turn on?  Or do  phone manufacturers in China embed a VPN into the phone so people can login?

6. Internet industry overall – it’s actually not a bad thing – that Google cannot dominate the world.  I do get scared that Google has grown so big,  and that its services reach to everyone so deeply.  It’s good to be able to have a 2nd competitor to come in – but I’m just not sure if Baidu is the player I want to see competing.

What it means to international businesses intended to go into China

What bothers me most, is what it signals to international businesses. It’s not the first time that a major business pulls out of China siting inappropriate business climates.  However, whenever the industry leader does this,  it signals to the world that, “China is not ready”.  Whatever China was trying to do,  like joining the WTO, climate  conferences,  just seems to go down the drain.  In fact, it seems as if China just turned backwards 20 years, if China blocks out Google.  As a Chinese-Canadian, I am torned about the fight between the borderless Internet giant and China.

So why, why would google say such a thing?

Why is Google doing this? Is it the beginning of another Cold War? Google knew about hackers all along, but what really prompted Google to pull out?

It may think that because it is #1 company in the world, it has the bargaining power.  But my dear Google, who are you trying to bargain with? CHINA! There is no way that the government will budge, especially recently China showed its strong approach in the execution of the British drug smuggler, and even the showing at the Coppenhagen Climate conference.

More interestingly,  the US Government seems to want to get into the action, by announcing tools to help people around the world to get pass their respective countries’ firewalls (FYI, China is not the only country that filters its internet).

a few reasonings that I can think of:

1. Google has strong evidence that Chinese government is behind all the hacking attacks,  and showed it to Hilary Clinton.

2. Google wants to play the “Do No Evil” rule, in order to win over the consumers and governnents in the rest of the world – so they can own more of your data. (Now that’s EVVVILL)

3. The US government fully supports this action – although knowing that their involvement will turn into quite a international scene that will eventually turn into a cold war.  US government assure that they will  use their treasury to support Google’s stock price and future profit. (Which is already true, since many US State governments uses Google services)

What will be the best outcome?

China – we will investigate about the hackers. In the mean time, if Google intends to continue the uncensored search, after some warning, we will have to shut it down, and you will need to move out of China.  So make up your decision within the next  N months.

Google – we realize that our decision is very immature, and we respect different culture has different needs/rules.  We will re-examine our decision and adhere to government rule within the next N months.

US government – don’t intervene.

Worst case?

Cold war all over again – foreign investments/companies/personnels moving out of China – there will be two separate worlds.

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